Ukunika Amandla Ikusasa: Izitayela Zengqalasizinda Zokushaja I-EV Yomhlaba Wonke Phakathi Koshintsho Lwezomnotho

Njengoba ukwamukelwa kwezimoto zikagesi emhlabeni wonke (i-EV) kushesha—ngokuthengiswa kuka-2024 kudlula amayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-17.1 kanye nokubikezelwa kwezigidi ezingu-21 ngo-2025—isidingo sezimoto eziqinileIngqalasizinda yokushaja i-EVsekufinyelele eqophelweni elingakaze libonwe ngaphambili. Kodwa-ke, lokhu kukhula kwenzeka ngaphansi kwesizinda sokuguquguquka komnotho, ukungezwani kwezohwebo, kanye nokusungula izinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe, okwakha kabusha isimo sokuncintisana se-abahlinzeki beziteshi zokushaja. 1. Ukukhula Kwemakethe kanye Nokuguquguquka Kwesifunda Imakethe yemishini yokushaja ye-EV kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ku-26.8% CAGR, ifinyelele ku-$456.1 billion ngo-2032, okubangelwa ukuthunyelwa kwamashaja omphakathi kanye nezikhuthazo zikahulumeni. Ukuqonda okubalulekile kwesifunda kufaka phakathi:

• I-America esenyakatho:Iziteshi zokushaja zomphakathi ezingaphezu kuka-207,000 ngo-2025, ezisekelwa yi-$5 billion yokuxhaswa kukahulumeni ngaphansi koMthetho Wokutshalwa Kwezimali Nemisebenzi Yengqalasizinda (IIJA). Kodwa-ke, ukwenyuka kwentela kwakamuva kwesikhathi sikaTrump (isb., 84% ezingxenyeni ze-EV zaseShayina) kusongela uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka kanye nokuzinza kwezindleko.
• IYurophu:Ukugxila ekushajeni komphakathi okungu-500,000 ngo-2025, kugxilwe kakhuluUkushaja okusheshayo kwe-DCemigwaqweni emikhulu. Umthetho we-EU wokuqukethwe kwasekhaya okungu-60% kumaphrojekthi omphakathi ucindezela abahlinzeki bangaphandle ukuthi benze ukukhiqizwa kube okwasendaweni.
• I-Asia-Pacific:Ibuswa yiShayina, ephethe ama-50% eziteshi zokushaja zomhlaba wonke. Izimakethe ezisafufusa njengeNdiya neThailand zamukela izinqubomgomo ze-EV ezinolaka, kanti iThailand ihlose ukuba yisikhungo sokukhiqiza i-EV esifundeni.

2. Intuthuko Yezobuchwepheshe Eqhuba Isidingo Ukushaja Okunamandla Aphezulu (i-HPC) kanye nokuphathwa kwamandla ahlakaniphile kushintsha kakhulu imboni:

• Amapulatifomu angu-800V:Isebenza ngabakhiqizi bezimoto abanjengoPorsche ne-BYD, ukushaja okusheshayo kakhulu (80% ngemizuzu eyi-15) kuya ngokuya kuthandwa, okudinga ukushaja kwe-DC okungu-150-350kW.
• Ukuhlanganiswa kwe-V2G:Izinhlelo zokushaja eziqondiswe kabili zivumela ama-EV ukuthi azinzise amagridi, avumelane nezixazululo zelanga kanye nesitoreji. Izinga le-NACS le-Tesla kanye ne-GB/T yaseShayina zihola emizamweni yokusebenzisana.
• Ukushaja okungenantambo:Ubuchwepheshe obusha bokuvukuza buthola ukuthandwa kwemikhumbi yezentengiselwano, okunciphisa isikhathi sokungasebenzi ezindaweni zokuthutha.

3. Izinselele Zezomnotho Nezimpendulo Ezihlelekile Izithiyo Zokuhweba kanye Nezingcindezi Zezindleko:

• Imiphumela Yentela:Izindleko zase-US ezingxenyeni ze-EV zaseShayina (kufika ku-84%) kanye nemiyalelo ye-EU yendawo iphoqa abakhiqizi ukuthi bahlukanise izintambo zokuhlinzeka. Izinkampani ezifana naleziI-BeiHai PowerIqembu lisungula izikhungo zokuhlanganisa eMexico naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ukuze ligweme imisebenzi.
• Ukwehliswa Kwezindleko Zebhethri:Intengo yebhethri le-lithium-ion yehle ngo-20% ngo-2024 yaya ku-$115/kWh, okwehlisa izindleko ze-EV kodwa kwaqinisa ukuncintisana kwamanani phakathi kwabaphakeli beshaja.

Amathuba Okufakwa Kukagesi Kwezentengiselwano:

• Ukulethwa Kwemayela Lokugcina:Amaveni kagesi, okulindelwe ukuthi azobusa imakethe ebiza amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-50 ngo-2034, adinga izindawo zokushaja okusheshayo ze-DC ezikwaziyo ukwandiswa.
• Ukuhamba Komphakathi:Amadolobha afana ne-Oslo (ukwamukelwa kwe-EV okungu-88.9%) kanye nemithetho yezindawo ezikhipha ugesi (ama-ZEZ) yizona ezibangela isidingo samanethiwekhi okushaja asemadolobheni anabantu abaningi.

4. Imigomo Yamasu Yabadlali Bemboni Ukuze bachume kulesi simo esiyinkimbinkimbi, ababambiqhaza kumele babeke phambili:

• Ukukhiqizwa Kwendawo:Ukubambisana nabakhiqizi besifunda (isb., amafektri amakhulu e-EU e-Tesla) ukuze kuhambisane nemithetho yokuqukethwe nokunciphisa izindleko zokuthutha.
• Ukuhambisana Okunezindinganiso Eziningi:Ukuthuthukisa amashaja asekelayoI-CCS1, i-CCS2, i-GB/T, kanye ne-NACSukukhonza izimakethe zomhlaba wonke.
• Ukuqina Kwegridi:Ukuhlanganisa iziteshi ezisebenzisa amandla elanga kanye nesofthiwe yokulinganisela umthwalo ukuze kuncishiswe ubunzima begridi.

Umgwaqo Ongaphambili Nakuba ukungezwani kwezepolitiki kanye nezimo zomnotho ziqhubeka, umkhakha wokushaja we-EV usalokhu uyisisekelo sokuguquka kwamandla. Abahlaziyi baqokomisa izitayela ezimbili ezibalulekile zika-2025-2030:

• Izimakethe Ezisafufusa:I-Afrika neLatin America zinikeza amandla angakasetshenziswa, njengoba ukukhula kwaminyaka yonke okungu-25% ekusetshenzisweni kwe-EV kudinga imali engabiziIzixazululo zokushaja ze-AC nezeselula.
• Ukungaqiniseki Kwenqubomgomo:Ukhetho lwase-US kanye nezingxoxo zokuhweba ze-EU zingachaza kabusha izindawo zoxhaso, zifune ubuhlakani kubakhiqizi.

IsiphethoImboni yokushaja i-EV imi endaweni evulekile: ukuthuthuka kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nemigomo yokuzinza kukhuthaza ukukhula, kuyilapho amanani entengo kanye nezindinganiso ezihlukene zidinga ukusungula izinto ezintsha. Izinkampani ezamukela ukuguquguquka, ukwenziwa kwendawo, kanye nengqalasizinda ehlakaniphile zizohola intengo ekusaseni elinogesi.Ukuze uthole izixazululo ezenziwe ngokwezifiso zokuzulazula kule ndawo eshintshayo, [Xhumana nathinamuhla.