Ukunika amandla Ikusasa: Amathrendi Engqalasizinda Eshajayo ye-EV Yomhlaba Wonke Phakathi Nokuguquguquka Kwezomnotho

Njengoba ukwamukelwa kwemoto kagesi yomhlaba wonke (i-EV) kushesha-ngokuthengiswa kuka-2024 kudlula amayunithi ayizigidi eziyi-17.1 kanye nokuqagela kwezigidi ezingama-21 ngo-2025-isidingo sokuqina.Ingqalasizinda yokushaja i-EVifinyelele ukuphakama okungakaze kubonwe ngaphambili. Kodwa-ke, lokhu kukhula kwenzeka ngenxa yokuntengantenga komnotho, ukungezwani kwezohwebo, kanye nokuqanjwa kabusha kwezobuchwepheshe, okubumba kabusha isimo sokuncintisana somnotho.abahlinzeki beziteshi zokushaja. 1. Ukukhula Kwemakethe kanye Nezinguquko Zesifunda Imakethe yemishini yokushaja ye-EV kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ku-CAGR engama-26.8%, ifinyelele ku- $456.1 billion ngo-2032, iqhutshwa ukuthunyelwa kwamashaja omphakathi kanye nezibonelelo zikahulumeni. Imibono yesifunda ebalulekile ihlanganisa:

• I-America esenyakatho:Iziteshi zokushaja zomphakathi ezingaphezu kuka-207,000 ngo-2025, zisekelwa ngamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-5 ngoxhaso lwenhlangano ngaphansi koMthetho Wokutshalwa Kwengqalasizinda Nemisebenzi (IIJA). Kodwa-ke, ukunyuka kwentela kwakamuva kwenkathi kaTrump (isb., ama-84% ezingxenyeni ze-Chinese EV) kusongela amaketanga okuhlinzeka kanye nokuzinza kwezindleko.
• I-Europe:Iqondise kumashaja omphakathi angu-500,000 ngo-2025, kugxilwe kuwoUkushaja okusheshayo kwe-DCemigwaqweni emikhulu. Umthetho we-EU wama-60% wokuqukethwe kwasekhaya wamaphrojekthi womphakathi ucindezela abahlinzeki bangaphandle ukuthi benze ukukhiqizwa okwasendaweni.
• I-Asia-Pacific:Iphethwe yi-China, ephethe u-50% weziteshi zokushaja emhlabeni jikelele. Izimakethe ezisafufusa njenge-India ne-Thailand zamukela izinqubomgomo ze-EV ezinolaka, kanti i-Thailand ihlose ukuba isizinda sokukhiqiza i-EV.

2. Intuthuko Yezobuchwepheshe Ukushayela Isidingo I-High-Power Charging (HPC) kanye nokuphathwa kwamandla okukhaliphile kuguqula imboni:

• 800V Platforms:Inikwe amandla abakhiqizi bezimoto abafana ne-Porsche ne-BYD, ukushaja okushesha kakhulu (80% emaminithini angu-15) kuba okujwayelekile, okudinga amashaja e-DC angu-150-350kW.
• Ukuhlanganiswa kwe-V2G:Izinhlelo zokushaja zezinhlangothi ezimbili zivumela ama-EV ukuthi azinzise amagridi, aqondanise nezixazululo zelanga nezokugcina. Izinga le-NACS likaTesla kanye ne-GB/T yaseChina zihola imizamo yokusebenzisana.
• Ukushaja okungenantambo:Ubuchwepheshe be-inductive obuthuthukayo buzuza amandla emikhumbi yezentengiselwano, kunciphisa isikhathi sokuphumula kuma-logistics hubs.

3. Izinselelo Zezomnotho kanye Nezimpendulo Zesu Izithiyo Zohwebo Nezingcindezi Zezindleko:

• Imithelela Yetharifu:Izintela zase-US ezingxenyeni ze-Chinese EV (kufika ku-84%) kanye neziyalezo zokwenza kwasendaweni ze-EU ziphoqa abakhiqizi ukuthi bahlukanise amaketanga okunikezela. Izinkampani ezifanaI-BeiHai PowerIqembu lisungula izindawo zokuhlanganisa eMexico naseNingizimu-mpumalanga Asia ukuze lidlule imisebenzi.
• Ukwehliswa Kwezindleko Zebhethri:Izintengo zebhethri ye-lithium-ion zehle ngo-20% ngo-2024 zaya ku-$115/kWh, zehlisa izindleko ze-EV kodwa kwaqinisa ukuncintisana kwentengo phakathi kwabahlinzeki beshaja.

Amathuba Ekufakeni Ugesi Kwezentengiso:

• Ukulethwa kwe-Last-Mile:Amaveni kagesi, okucatshangwa ukuthi azobusa imakethe eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-50 ngo-2034, adinga amadepho ashaja ngokushesha e-DC.
• Izinto zokuhamba zomphakathi:Amadolobhakazi afana ne-Oslo (88.9% EV adoption) kanye neziyalezo zezindawo ezikhishwa yiziro-emission (ZEZs) ziqhuba isidingo samanethiwekhi okushaja asemadolobheni anabantu abaningi.

4. Okubalulekile Okubalulekile Kwabadlali Bemboni Ukuze baphumelele kulesi simo esiyinkimbinkimbi, ababambiqhaza kumele babeke phambili:

• Ukukhiqizwa Kwendawo:Ukubambisana nabakhiqizi besifunda (isb., ama-gigafactories e-Tesla's EU) ukuze bahambisane nemithetho yokuqukethwe kanye nokunciphisa izindleko zokuhamba.
• Ukuhambisana Okujwayelekile Okuningi:Ukuthuthukisa amashaja asekelayoI-CCS1, CCS2, GB/T, ne-NACSukusebenzela izimakethe zomhlaba.
• Ukuqina Kwegridi:Ukuhlanganisa iziteshi ezisebenza ngamandla elanga kanye nesofthiwe yokulinganisa umthwalo ukuze kuncishiswe ubunzima begridi.

Indlela Eya Phambili Nakuba ukungezwani kwezwe kanye nezivunguvungu zezomnotho kuqhubeka, umkhakha wokushaja i-EV usalokhu uyingxenye yoguquko lwamandla. Abahlaziyi bagqamisa amathrendi amabili abalulekile ka-2025–2030:

• Izimakethe Ezisafufusa:I-Afrika kanye ne-Latin America zinikeza amandla angasetshenziswanga, ngokukhula konyaka okungama-25% ekutholweni kwe-EV okudinga ukuthengeka.Izixazululo ze-AC kanye nokushaja kweselula.
• Ukungaqiniseki Kwenqubomgomo:Ukhetho lwase-US kanye nezingxoxo zezohwebo ze-EU zingachaza kabusha izimo zemixhaso, zifune ukukhalipha kubakhiqizi.

IsiphethoImboni yokushaja i-EV ime empambanweni yezindlela: impumelelo yezobuchwepheshe kanye nezinjongo zokusimama zikhuthaza ukukhula, kuyilapho amanani entengo namazinga ahlukene adinga ukusungulwa kwamasu. Izinkampani ezamukela ukuguquguquka, ukwenziwa kwasendaweni, nengqalasizinda ehlakaniphile zizoholela inkokhiso ekusaseni eligcwele ugesi.Ukuze uthole izixazululo ezenziwe ngezifiso zokuzulazula kulo mkhakha wezwe oguqukayo, [Xhumana nathi] namuhla.